Step 4 - We have made a list of the situations in which we are most likely to burn fossil fuels

This is a big one. Have I got the nerve to live by conclusions which I'm placing in a public domain? We shall see...

Please can I start by making a list of the situations in which I am NOT likely to burn fossil fuels? Such as:

• Walking
• Cycling
• Sailing
• Gardening & planting
• Repairing my boat
• Chatting face to face with family & friends
• Sitting in the garden
• Reading in daylight
• Sleeping
• Making love
• Running household appliances when the sun is shining (i.e. when our electricity is generated by our solar panels)

That's a positive start, anyway. Life doesn't have to cease altogether!
What about situations when I burn fossil fuels?

• Heating my house with gas
• Powered flying
• Driving a petrol, diesel or LPG vehicle
• Leaving electrical devices on standby overnight:
• Mobile phone chargers
• Telly, radio, CD player
• Computers
• Central heating/hot water control system
• Electricity monitoring sytem
• Electric lighting (by definition, in the dark)
• Cooking after dark (we use an electric hob)
• Buying food produced elsewhere
• Buying anything produced elsewhere
• Putting on the electric blanket before we go to bed
• Working at my computer after dark
• Sending emails, facebook updates - anything which other people view on their computer
• Talking on the phone (uses public electricity)

Conclusions:

1. Get up earlier
2. Walk, cycle or use public transport
3. Sail to other countries
4. Do as much as possible during the day
5. Charge phones & tablet during day
6. Switch off everything at night
7. Go to bed when it gets dark

Step 3 - We turn to our fellow men and women, particularly those who have struggled with the same problem.

The Carbonics Anonymous 12-step programme is about coping with the knowledge that burning fossil fuels causes irreparable harm to our planetary life support systems, while at the same time being habituated ("addicted" according President George Bush Jnr) to ways of living which totally depend on doing just that.

Step 1 and Step 2 "framed" the problem, now we're starting to look at the first practical action. Just who are our fellow men and women who have struggled with the same problem?

My first answer are the climate scientists, who have been obsessing over this issue since at least the 1960s and even earlier. All of my blogs in January, February and March were posted while working through Exeter University's excellent online "Climate Change" course. This brilliant TED talk by Gavin Schmidt is a good summary, describing how computer modelling allows climate scientists to predict "what if?" scenarios with increasing degrees of confidence.

But scientists have the comfort of knowing they're contributing what they do best: working on theories and mathematics until they match observations. Hotter droughts? Higher sea levels? Worse flooding? Stronger hurricanes? Ocean acidification? Yep - they all match scientists' assertions that climate change is real and happening now, and moreover, if we don't act things will get much worse.

They do a fantastic and essential job, but scientists don't seem to realise that addicts know all about living dangerously. Two recent and strongly worded  reports (IPCC Working Group 3,  US National Climate Assessment, have produced little more than a collective yawn.

Who then to turn to? Who are the people looking squarely at the overwhelming scientific consensus, while working resolutely towards solutions?

Here is a tiny list of such organisations, groups and people I've encountered. It doesn't seem to matter who you start with, they're all interconnected and any one leads sooner or later to others, according to your curiosity:

Transition Network - http://www.transitionnetwork.org/ - communities, books, films, workshops

Centre for Alternative Technology - http://www.cat.org.uk/ - zero carbon Britain

Friends of the Earth - http://www.foe.co.uk/

Greenpeace - http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/ - campaigns

Quakers - http://quaker.org.uk/minute-36

Charles Eisenstein - http://charleseisenstein.net/ - books & talks

Joanna Macey - http://www.joannamacy.net/ - workshops

End Ecocide - http://www.endecocide.eu/ - law to end ecocide

350 Degrees - http://350.org - divesting from fossil fuel industries

(There are many, many more)

Once I started looking, doors opened and I found my local Transition in Kings (TiK) group - http://www.transitioninkings.org - then I got involved in our local renewable energy co-op http://www.guceltd.org and now my world of fellow "Carbonics" just goes on expanding.

 

Learning by doing

Step 2 - We believe that we must turn elsewhere for help

If Step 1 of my Carbonics Anonymous' programme is to acknowledge that we have failed so far to stop burning fossil fuels, where does Step 2 take us?

Albert Einstein pointed out that:

"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them"

It's generally accepted that Einstein meant "problems in Physics" - that is, problems that arise when observations of natural phenomena appear to contradict theories that ought to explain them.

One of the problems Einstein tackled early in his career was the "photoelectric effect", where it was observed that metals bombarded with light give off electrons. The effect could be measured using a sensitive voltmeter, and the phenomenon is not explained by theories based on the wave characteristics of light. He proposed instead that light consists of units of energy or "quanta", and this led in turn to the principles of quantum mechanics, and eventually to today's mass production of solar photovoltaic panels.

At this point I must acknowledge that some steps in the AA's 12-step programme refer to God. I have deliberately adapted B F Skinner's humanist version for several reasons, but mainly to avoid any semblance of abdicating responsibility to a "deus ex machina" - the idea that somehow it will all turn out OK if we put our trust in the deity. (If it doesn't turn out, obviously that's because we didn't trust enough, and that approach sounds risky to me).

Nevertheless my own experience suggests that solutions to problems often appear after some kind of "letting go", sometimes by sleeping on them, or perhaps by taking time out to go for a walk. Here's a photo I took last Saturday:

I don't usually pick wild flowers, but this little posy on our table adds wonderment to every meal:

Step 2 simply acknowledges that we can't solve the problems created by burning fossil fuels with the kind of thinking that got us here. But what does it mean to "turn elsewhere"? Thinking about this led me to take a walk, and these pictures are reminders of how we might "turn elsewhere".

This in turn reminded me of long ago watching the film "To Be Alive" which was produced for the 1964/65 World Fair in New York. (This YouTube version doesn't have the fantastic colour and definition of the original, which was truly amazing in those days).

In the next blog, Step 3 will consider another place to turn.

Step 1 - We accept the fact that we have failed.

A little while ago it dawned on me that my attitude to climate change is not unlike that of a person who's been persuaded to go to Alcoholics Anonymous. We must cure ourselves of addiction to fossil fuels, but I'm still completely hooked on the stuff.

So I decided to work through a version of the 12-step programme. The first step is:

"We accept the fact that all our efforts to stop burning fossil fuels have failed."

This is obviously true both globally, and also personally. Globally all our efforts at international agreements have failed, and even nominal targets such as "no more than 2 degrees C" are clearly forecast to be exceeded.

I read recently that solar electricity is now cheaper than conventional generation in 19 markets around the world. In China and USA, the proportion of renewable energy installation is slowly increasing, but that means we're still emitting more and more CO2 every year. On present showing we're not going to reach "carbon neutral" which some scientists say we must achieve by 2036.

At the personal level, the solar hot water panels we installed 20 years ago, and the PV panels more recently have certainly reduced our energy demand, but they don't keep us warm in the depths of winter when our gas consumption is pretty much like everyone else. (OK, we turned the thermostat down). Have my wife and I stopped driving? Flying to my sister-in-law? Buying food from all over the world at the supermarket? Er, no. The fact is that our efforts to reduce our personal carbon footprint have shrunk it by perhaps 10% so far.

The thing is, I understand that climate change is threatening the lives of my children and grandchildren, but it's not "in yer face" a clear and present danger. Floods and storms didn't happen much around here, nor did the heatwaves and droughts further afield. I can only imagine how awful they were, but I can't imagine them for very long.

Meanwhile almost everyone around me seems to get along just fine without worrying over it. In fact many seem to get along much better than me because I bear personal scars from speaking out. Mankind has always turned its back on people who say how awful the future will be if we don't mend our ways.

Thus peer pressure doth make silent climate deniers of us all.

We have no choice but to accept the fact that all our efforts have failed.

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released today, and it's been interesting to read how various organs of the UK media have dealt with it. The following observations all relate to the online press:

At last, the BBC - radio, television and BBC News website - presented the IPCC information in a clear, unbiased way, with a top headline article on the website. No more "it's all too complicated and there's nothing we can do about it anyway".

The Guardian also has a clear and thorough article, although they didn't make it a headline item. Maybe tomorrow?

The Independent placed their article 20th on the web page, after Firing Between N & S Korea, N. Farage's opinion of V. Putin, how Steve Jobs got a Google employee fired, and many more. Nevertheless, the IPCC article is lengthy and well illustrated.

The Times & Financial Times - nothing. Maybe tomorrow?

The Telegraph put it on the front page under the headline "Britain should prepare for an influx of 'climate change refugees'". Yes, that's the most important implication of the IPCC report. The article is full of quotes, rather than analysis, implying "can you believe this stuff?" with alongside links to older related articles such as Boris Johnson's June 2013 "The weather prophets should be chucked in the deep end".

Daily Mail & Sun - nothing.

Daily Express - "Climate change to bring more floods, UN warns" - in a brief article towards the bottom of the page, noting the discrepancies found in the 2007 report about glacier melting, and the proportion of Holland below sea level. "Sceptics have also seized on a slowdown in the rate of warming in the past 15 years." It's true, sceptics did seize on that rumour, but is it still relevant?

****
The big change (to my eyes at any rate) is the BBC. No more false "balance", just straightforward reporting. The Guardian has long been a strong advocate of action to deal with climate change. Perhaps the other serious newspapers are still digesting the report, maybe looking for more holes to pick instead of putting the message across.

Carbonics Anonymous

I recently discovered a version of the AA 12-Step Programme written by B F Skinner, the American behaviourist philosopher. The idea of substituting "fossil fuels" for "alcohol" came from reading Facing Up to Stealth Denial and Winding Down on Fossil Fuels by the Royal Society of Arts, and also the statement of President George W Bush that "America is addicted to oil".

1. We accept the fact that all our efforts to stop burning fossil fuels have failed.

2. We believe that we must turn elsewhere for help.

3. We turn to our fellow men and women, particularly those who have struggled with the same problem.

4. We have made a list of the situations in which we are most likely to burn fossil fuels.

5. We ask our friends to help us avoid those situations.

6. We are ready to accept the help they give us.

7. We honestly hope they will help.

8. We have made a list of the persons we have harmed and to whom we hope to make amends.

9. We shall do all we can to make amends, in any way that will not cause further harm.

10. We will continue to make such lists and revise them as needed.

11. We appreciate what our friends have done and are doing to help us.

12. We, in turn, are ready to help others who may come to us in the same way.
    
    I haven't yet met anyone willing to join me in forming "We". If you would like to do so please leave a comment or get in touch via my Profile.

Zero Carbon Britain

A couple of weeks after completing the course on "Climate Change challenges and solutions" I was talking to some representatives of neighbouring Transition Towns. I proposed we should adopt "Zero Carbon" as a goal on the premise that this might encourage more people to appreciate and become involved in Transition.

The responses were interesting:

"It's completely unrealistic..."
"It's not what Transition is all about..."
"We'll never persuade politicians...."
"Preserving bio-diversity is important too..."
"How would that encourage local food schemes..."
"Tailor your message to your audience..."

The last response was helpful, and as a start I'm using this blog to explain how I arrived at "Zero Carbon". (To be precise it should really be "Net Zero Carbon", but I don't believe in using three words when two will do).

I've always been a bit of an activist, in fact I believe we all try to persuade and justify our beliefs to others, one way or another, whether it's about religion, politics, how to rear children, diet or exercise regimes, or the latest gizmos. So why "Zero Carbon"?

The short answer is that none of the Transition aims listed above can be achieved - in the long run, for benefit of my offspring - unless we reach "Zero Carbon" in the shortest possible time. There's no chance of feeding a population of 9 billion or preserving bio-diversity unless we stabilise earth's climate.

The difficult thing for many people to grasp is that, even if we could completely halt carbon dioxide emissions today, earth's climate will continue warming for very many years to come. That means other natural processes which contribute to further warming will carry on too, such as: 

• Loss of ice cover reflecting sunlight back into space
• Rainforests drying out so they absorb less carbon dioxide
• Warming of permafrost which releases methane (another powerful greenhouse gas)

"Zero Carbon" is the only way we can start to slow these processes, and give ourselves time to discover how to manage them and take the steps needed to stabilise the climate. The scientific evidence shows that "80% cuts by 2050" just won't hack it. And anyway, even if 80% were enough, what then?

Chart from Zero Carbon Britain, Centre for Alternative Technology   

That's why I believe "Zero Carbon" should be our goal for Transition. Read more in Zero Carbon Britain - a recent report by the Centre for Alternative Technology.

Week 8 - Final week

8.11 Reflections

Week 8 - Final week

Important themes this week included appreciating the uncertainties which accompany climate forecasts, particularly forecasts of ice melting and hence sea level rise, and how much/by when we will act to curb fossil fuel extraction.

The greatest hazard facing UK (as we've seen this winter) is flooding, which could have a dramatic impact upon population centres including London, as well as reducing areas of prime agricultural land for growing food. These in turn will severely impact our economic system.

I was pleased to achieve 29/30 in both of the quizzes, although I needed to do a little research!

It was rather sobering to update the number of times the Thames Barrier has been closed since I first investigated this in Week 3 on 27th January. I shall be watching closely for news of further government actions to protect London from flooding.

Regarding the course as a whole:

I am already actively working to build resilience to climate change in my local community, through involvement with Transition in Kings (TiK) (www.transitioninkings.org) and Grand Union Community Energy Ltd. (www.guceltd.org)

At 73 years old I am not overly concerned about remembering all the facts and figures covered in the course, although I'm pleased to have learned several new concepts in the science of climate change, such as ocean acidification and urban heat islands, as well as gaining a better understanding of the uncertainties which accompany predictions.

Two new ideas will be particularly useful in future Transition work: the application of Carbon Budgets as a spur to action in a locality, and the individual Carbon Footprint Calculator on the DirectGov website.

Week 7

Activity 7.3 - Building design near you

A building or part of an urban landscape that indicates a design that is adapted to a changing climate.

A well-known building that has been adapted to a changing climate is the former Ovaltine Egg Farm in Kings Langley, Herts, WD4 8LR. In 2002 the farm buildings were converted into headquarters offices for Renewable Energy Systems Ltd. (RES)



The building is now known as Beaufort Court, and as you would expect, the conversion incorporates a number of features which adapt it for climate change.

A comprehensive description of the building can be found online, but the main features are:

Energy generation

225 kW wind turbine (visible from M25 motorway)
54 sq m of hybrid photo-voltaic / thermal (PVT) panels
116 sq m of solar thermal panels.
5 hectares of 'Elephant Grass' to fuel biomass boiler in winter
75m deep borehole for cooling in summer

Energy storage

A large underground seasonal heat store allows heat generated from the PVT and solar thermal panels in the summer to be used later during cold weather.

"Greening"

The inner office areas are covered by a grass roof
Boxed Hornbeam trees in front of windows provide shade in summer, and allow light into office during winter.

Activity 7.8 - Reflection

Week 7 covered three main themes:

1. The huge variety of factors that must be considered when designing new buildings to survive through expected climate changes, and even more when looking at making existing buildings more resilient
    
2. Advantages of bottom-up approaches for gaining acceptance of renewable energy systems which change the appearance of familiar landscapes and buildings, compared with top-down approaches which generate resistance to change
    
3. An example of "carbon budget" approach, whereby everyone in a locality can see how their own actions contribute to reducing carbon emissions.  I think this approach can be usefully applied where I live.

Clearly, mastering all the aspects of building for climate change is obviously a lifetime career!

I hadn't realised the extent of UK government efforts which stem from the Climate Change Act of 2008, such as individual Departmental Climate Change Adaptation Plans, Energy Roadmap to 2020, Technology Strategy, Building Regulations & materials, Planning guidance, and so-on. I wonder how well these plans have survived under the government's austerity programme.

As someone who suffers more than many from cold, it hadn't occurred to me that keeping cool in summer is likely to be more important than keeping warm in winter.

I was puzzled why there seem to be relatively few campaigns against wind turbines in our local area. On a recent flight over Portugal we could see large numbers of turbines on every hill, and I was told that 70% of that country's energy demand is no met from renewable sources.

However, our area is relatively flat and average wind speeds are below 7m/sec, which seems to be a critical factor, so there aren't many locations where turbines are financially viable around here. The turbine at Beaufort Court shown above may have been approved because it is near the motorway, rather than "beautiful unspoilt countryside".

Particularly useful documents this week are the Design for future climate and Beating the Heat, and the Guardian article by Rebecca Willis on developing the Lake District's carbon budget.

Week 6

Although I know London tends to be warmer when I visit the city, I did not know about Urban Heat Islands, or why measures to counteract them can be so effective, such as trees and green spaces, or painting roofs and other surfaces white. Surely, solar panels also reflect infra-red rays back into space?

Today in UK we're already seeing the impact of climate change on food production, with large areas of prime agricultural land submerged below the water in the Somerset Levels, Thames Valley & Kent. Some estimates say it will take well over a year for the land to dry out and become productive again.

It started me thinking that perhaps food security is an even more urgent issue that climate change. The farmers who have been forced to leave the Levels appear mostly to produce dairy and beef products, which humans can live without, at least for much of the time.


I had a small difficulty in the quiz: Prof Gurr's transcript says that pathogens are moving towards higher latitudes at 7km per year, rather than 3km per year in the quiz. Which figure is correct?

I spent some time revisiting books I read in the 1980's about food supplies, such as Buckminster Fuller's "Ho-Ping Food for Everyone", and more recent writings on Permaculture from the Transition movement.

Once again, Wikipedia has a good body of articles on Agriculture, incliuding on Permaculture, Polyculture, Aquaponics. The UK government initiated a project to reduce food waste, which has excellent suggestions for reducing waste - see WRAP Waste & Resources Action Programme - http://www.wrap.org.uk

Week 5

At my second attempt I got through the course (15/15 again) and here are my reflections:

1. Themes:

a) Besides reducing the amount of sunlight reflected back into space, loss of ice cover on land at the N & S Poles will cause large sea level rise, much greater than loss of ice cover on mountains

b) It is difficult to predict future loss of polar ice caps with accuracy, for example, Arctic sea ice has retreated more rapidly than expected. Hence it is essential to monitor developments closely and improve understanding of ice loss mechanisms at the poles.

c) Ocean acidification (OA) occurs because CO2 is being absorbed in sea water at faster rates than the production of carbonate ions through weathering of rocks and dissolving shells of dead organisms. The resulting chemical interactions leave higher concentrations of acidic hydrogen ions, reducing the pH value of seawater.

d) Invertebrate organisms will be slow to adapt to harmful effects of OA. They are at the bottom of aquatic food chains, so loss of these organisms will lead to loss of larger aquatic species.

2. Difficult:

New terminology & processes: positive/negative mass balance, basal lubrication, phytoplancton, chemistry of OA.

3. Interesting:

OA is a completely new area to me.

4. Research:

Proportion of world's population living in coastal areas likely to be affected by sea level rise:

http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/climate-change/impacts/sea_level_rise/

5. Useful sites:

 

Wikipedia has many pages on climate change and related issues, e.g.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Arctic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification

Week 4

Reflections on Week 4

This week's sessions were about better understanding the physics and mathematical elements of climate models, and gaining an appreciation of  several geoengineering schemes for Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) as well as assessing the value of these schemes.

I successfully download the BOINC climate modelling client to my Linux laptop, but encountered difficulties connecting it to www.climateprediction.net via Gridrepublic. The client seemed to report there was no data to process on the tasks I selected.

Downloading the ZEMB spreadsheet was more successful, I completed 60% of the exercises before running out of time. However I did enough to understand the tipping points which might have caused the ancient climate to shift between "snowball earth" and ice-free conditions.

I find working with simulation models and spreadsheets extremely helpful to understand how models work and the role of different variables.

Wikipedia helped me find the number of "boxes" in HADCM3, and what is meant by "Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement". Pleased again to achieve 15/15.

The website at earthobservatory.nasa.gov has a fantastic collection of images, and useful articles on many aspects of climate change which we have already covered.

John Englart's Climate Citizen blog has an alarming article (http://goo.gl/zCTpkh) about very recent decisions by the Australian Government to develop coal mining at the Galilee basin in Central Queensland, coupled with destruction of part of the Great Barrier Reef to enable coal shipments. I am shocked that so few organisations are having such a huge impact, and would like to know about any campaigns to stop them.

Week 3

Week 3

I've devoted more time to this week (6 or 7 hours instead of just a morning) and was pleased to score well in the test.

My responses to previous sections were entered in the comments, so here are my reflections on today's course:

1. Most important themes:

I think it's becoming very hard for the average person to avoid "connecting the dots" between extreme weather events and climate change, but I also wonder whether our growing awareness could also be in part a result of today's global 24/7 news coverage? Would we have been so aware of hurricane Sandy, or Australian heatwaves, etc. 50 years ago? For example I didn't know that the North Sea surge of 1953 killed over 1800 people in Holland.

It was interesting to see the graphics projecting future temperature & precipitation changes with different future levels of CO2. It's amazing this information is all available online!

While I knew about the carbon cycle, I wasn't aware of the significant part played by the deep ocean.

2. Difficulties:

The questions in 3.4 were all phrased in the present tense, e.g "What places on Earth have experienced the largest warming from 1980-2004? Are the areas that are experiencing the most warming..."

The charts show future projections for 2050-2074, and I wonder whether "will have experienced" and "will be experiencing" would be clearer. Or did I miss something?

3. Most interesting:

I enjoyed looking back and remembering several extreme weather events in UK during my lifetime, and relating them to where they took place, and to the storms and rainfall at the time.

4. Further research: 

I used Google and Wikipedia to find out about the Thames Barrier, and potential future flood damage in UK. Between 1983 when it was built and 2000, it was closed on average twice a year. Between 2000 and 2010 the average was 8 times a year. During every one of 11 days this past January, it was opened before the high tide, and on one occasion the tide rise high enough to spill over the river bank wall at one side of the barrier.

5. Useful websites:

The World Bank datasets are a fantastic resource with a vast amount of economic and population data by country.

Friends of the Earth - www.foe.co.uk - have good booklets and reports to support local activism.

On that note, I attended a talk last week by Polly Higgins about her campaign for Eradicating Ecocide, and urge everyone to sign up here: www.eradicatingecocide.com/wish20/

Week 2

Monday 20 January

Ancient past climate

Water & water vapour played a key role, enabling the creation of life forms but also nearly wiping them out through at least two extreme temperature swings caused by positive feedback effects. See http://www.snowballearth.org/ & http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/ancient_earth/Snowball_Earth

BBC site noisily illustrates how extreme temperatures came about, and left evidence in rock formations.

Here is my feedback diagram:

Another course participant, Takver Takvera writes a climate change blog with a very full description of this process: http://takvera.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/exclimate-ice-albedo-feedback-mechanism.html

Recommended reading about climate records:

What are climate change records?

Met Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/science/explained/observations

Rocks, ice cores and tree rings provide evidence for the state of the atmosphere at different times and locations, including temperature, amount of radiation and atmpspheric composition

How do volcanoes affect climate change?

Volcanos: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Aerosols/

Volcanic eruptions deposit vast amounts of dust in the atmosphere over large parts of the glove, causing increased albedo and short term reduction in temperature.

How is today’s warming different from the past?

"Natural variations" in the past several thousand years have not included the sudden rise in temperature accompanied by the similar sudden rise on atmospheric CO2 taking place over the past 100 years, and occurring even more rapidly today.

What is the role of isotopes in determining temperatures from the past?

Role of isotopes: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/schmidt_01/

The rate of radioactive decay of isotopes can be measured very precisely, enabling samples of rock or ice which contain an isotope to be accurately dated, which in turn dates the climate evidence contained in the samples.

How have trees been used to reconstruct different climate variIce cores: http://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/ables across the world?

Tree rings: http://web.utk.edu/~grissino/principles.htm#1

The spacing and contents between the rings which grow around the tree every year, provide evidence of the amount of biological activity resulting from solar radiation, humidity and temperature during that year. Counting the rigs inwards dates each ring, or in older tree relics, carbon dating is used.

How can ice cores provide a record of atmospheric composition?

Ice cores: http://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/

Snow is deposited on the ice surface each year, and its texture and chemical compositon changes in summer and winter. As each layer of snow is overlaid by another, the lower layers become compressed so that many thousands of years of ice layers may be examined by extracting a deep ice core.

400 parts per million

Two things are remarkable about CO2 reaching 400ppm:

1. No previous climate records reached this level with similar rapidity,

2. It is correlated closely with the known output of CO2 caused by extraction and burning fossil fuels during the industrial era

The last time CO2 reached similar levels was during the Pliocene period between 3.3-3.0 mya, when the average climate was 2-3 degrees C warmer and sea levels were 25 m higher. The higher temperature resulted from near-complete absence of ice, however this period was marked by overall cooling and appearance of polar ice caps. It began with extensive forestation which disappeared as the climate cooled.

Reflection:

Disappointed to achieve 9/15 in the test, having dropped 6 points on the aerosols and proxy records. I should have gone for only one answer rather then try to find all the correct answers. Instead, I scored 0, and need to study the correct ones. I believe volcanic eruption and desert dust to be aerosols, and trees rings and ice cores provide climate proxy records.

Important themes: Climate history, how it has been determined, and causes of variation
Most difficult: Multiple choice questions with more than one correct answer - can I get a correct score with just one answer? Also, video segments include lots of entertainment but I get impatient looking out for the key points.
Most interesting: What kinds of changes or events cause positive feedback loops to stabilise and then  reverse? Volcanic eruptions, asteroid impact, Milankovitch cycles
Own research: Geo-engineering by seeding water vaapour - to do
Websites: Takver Takvera's blog at http://takvera.blogspot.com.au He has a whole day ahead of me to develop his website in Melbourne, but it's very impressive even so! I'm interested to see what other course participants are producing.

Week 1

13 January

I am actually posting this in Week 2, based on notes made privately after the first session.

Summary

In Week 1, it was noted that the scientific principles of climate change began to be investigated nearly 200 years ag, and I wanted to know who first looked at these issues. I found a timeline at http://www.skepticalscience.com/cshistory.php 

While infrared radiation (heat) was described by Herschel in 1800, and Fourier described the role of earth's atmosphere in retaining heat from the sun, it wasn't until 1860 that Tyndall identified the role of CO2 in blocking the escape of heat from the earth's surface.

From previous studies, I knew about the roles of CO2, Methane and CFCs as greenhouse gases, but I wasn't so aware of the role of water vapour and Nitrous oxide. I know how clouds are formed, but need to understand more clearly how water vapour can form a positive feedback loop. The current well-documented shrinking of polar ice is an alarming positive feedback loop.

Reflection

Key Scientific principles:

Greenhouse gases absorb long wave radiations in the atmosphere, which are emitted when shortwave radiations from sun interact with biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere

Positive feedback cycles include water evaporation & ice melting, negative feedback cycles include rocks cooling

Themes

I already knew about climate vs weather, CO2 greenhouse gas, long wavelength radiation (heat) vs. short wavelength radiation (light)

Didn't know several scientific terms, water vapour as a greenhouse gas, percentages of radiation reflected & absorbed in IPCC FAQ 1.1

Researched history of climate science at http://skepticalscience.com, Fourier, Tyndall, Arrhenius et al.