Step 2 - We believe that we must turn elsewhere for help

If Step 1 of my Carbonics Anonymous' programme is to acknowledge that we have failed so far to stop burning fossil fuels, where does Step 2 take us?

Albert Einstein pointed out that:

"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them"

It's generally accepted that Einstein meant "problems in Physics" - that is, problems that arise when observations of natural phenomena appear to contradict theories that ought to explain them.

One of the problems Einstein tackled early in his career was the "photoelectric effect", where it was observed that metals bombarded with light give off electrons. The effect could be measured using a sensitive voltmeter, and the phenomenon is not explained by theories based on the wave characteristics of light. He proposed instead that light consists of units of energy or "quanta", and this led in turn to the principles of quantum mechanics, and eventually to today's mass production of solar photovoltaic panels.

At this point I must acknowledge that some steps in the AA's 12-step programme refer to God. I have deliberately adapted B F Skinner's humanist version for several reasons, but mainly to avoid any semblance of abdicating responsibility to a "deus ex machina" - the idea that somehow it will all turn out OK if we put our trust in the deity. (If it doesn't turn out, obviously that's because we didn't trust enough, and that approach sounds risky to me).

Nevertheless my own experience suggests that solutions to problems often appear after some kind of "letting go", sometimes by sleeping on them, or perhaps by taking time out to go for a walk. Here's a photo I took last Saturday:

I don't usually pick wild flowers, but this little posy on our table adds wonderment to every meal:

Step 2 simply acknowledges that we can't solve the problems created by burning fossil fuels with the kind of thinking that got us here. But what does it mean to "turn elsewhere"? Thinking about this led me to take a walk, and these pictures are reminders of how we might "turn elsewhere".

This in turn reminded me of long ago watching the film "To Be Alive" which was produced for the 1964/65 World Fair in New York. (This YouTube version doesn't have the fantastic colour and definition of the original, which was truly amazing in those days).

In the next blog, Step 3 will consider another place to turn.

Step 1 - We accept the fact that we have failed.

A little while ago it dawned on me that my attitude to climate change is not unlike that of a person who's been persuaded to go to Alcoholics Anonymous. We must cure ourselves of addiction to fossil fuels, but I'm still completely hooked on the stuff.

So I decided to work through a version of the 12-step programme. The first step is:

"We accept the fact that all our efforts to stop burning fossil fuels have failed."

This is obviously true both globally, and also personally. Globally all our efforts at international agreements have failed, and even nominal targets such as "no more than 2 degrees C" are clearly forecast to be exceeded.

I read recently that solar electricity is now cheaper than conventional generation in 19 markets around the world. In China and USA, the proportion of renewable energy installation is slowly increasing, but that means we're still emitting more and more CO2 every year. On present showing we're not going to reach "carbon neutral" which some scientists say we must achieve by 2036.

At the personal level, the solar hot water panels we installed 20 years ago, and the PV panels more recently have certainly reduced our energy demand, but they don't keep us warm in the depths of winter when our gas consumption is pretty much like everyone else. (OK, we turned the thermostat down). Have my wife and I stopped driving? Flying to my sister-in-law? Buying food from all over the world at the supermarket? Er, no. The fact is that our efforts to reduce our personal carbon footprint have shrunk it by perhaps 10% so far.

The thing is, I understand that climate change is threatening the lives of my children and grandchildren, but it's not "in yer face" a clear and present danger. Floods and storms didn't happen much around here, nor did the heatwaves and droughts further afield. I can only imagine how awful they were, but I can't imagine them for very long.

Meanwhile almost everyone around me seems to get along just fine without worrying over it. In fact many seem to get along much better than me because I bear personal scars from speaking out. Mankind has always turned its back on people who say how awful the future will be if we don't mend our ways.

Thus peer pressure doth make silent climate deniers of us all.

We have no choice but to accept the fact that all our efforts have failed.