IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released today, and it's been interesting to read how various organs of the UK media have dealt with it. The following observations all relate to the online press:

At last, the BBC - radio, television and BBC News website - presented the IPCC information in a clear, unbiased way, with a top headline article on the website. No more "it's all too complicated and there's nothing we can do about it anyway".

The Guardian also has a clear and thorough article, although they didn't make it a headline item. Maybe tomorrow?

The Independent placed their article 20th on the web page, after Firing Between N & S Korea, N. Farage's opinion of V. Putin, how Steve Jobs got a Google employee fired, and many more. Nevertheless, the IPCC article is lengthy and well illustrated.

The Times & Financial Times - nothing. Maybe tomorrow?

The Telegraph put it on the front page under the headline "Britain should prepare for an influx of 'climate change refugees'". Yes, that's the most important implication of the IPCC report. The article is full of quotes, rather than analysis, implying "can you believe this stuff?" with alongside links to older related articles such as Boris Johnson's June 2013 "The weather prophets should be chucked in the deep end".

Daily Mail & Sun - nothing.

Daily Express - "Climate change to bring more floods, UN warns" - in a brief article towards the bottom of the page, noting the discrepancies found in the 2007 report about glacier melting, and the proportion of Holland below sea level. "Sceptics have also seized on a slowdown in the rate of warming in the past 15 years." It's true, sceptics did seize on that rumour, but is it still relevant?

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The big change (to my eyes at any rate) is the BBC. No more false "balance", just straightforward reporting. The Guardian has long been a strong advocate of action to deal with climate change. Perhaps the other serious newspapers are still digesting the report, maybe looking for more holes to pick instead of putting the message across.

Carbonics Anonymous

I recently discovered a version of the AA 12-Step Programme written by B F Skinner, the American behaviourist philosopher. The idea of substituting "fossil fuels" for "alcohol" came from reading Facing Up to Stealth Denial and Winding Down on Fossil Fuels by the Royal Society of Arts, and also the statement of President George W Bush that "America is addicted to oil".

1. We accept the fact that all our efforts to stop burning fossil fuels have failed.

2. We believe that we must turn elsewhere for help.

3. We turn to our fellow men and women, particularly those who have struggled with the same problem.

4. We have made a list of the situations in which we are most likely to burn fossil fuels.

5. We ask our friends to help us avoid those situations.

6. We are ready to accept the help they give us.

7. We honestly hope they will help.

8. We have made a list of the persons we have harmed and to whom we hope to make amends.

9. We shall do all we can to make amends, in any way that will not cause further harm.

10. We will continue to make such lists and revise them as needed.

11. We appreciate what our friends have done and are doing to help us.

12. We, in turn, are ready to help others who may come to us in the same way.
    
    I haven't yet met anyone willing to join me in forming "We". If you would like to do so please leave a comment or get in touch via my Profile.

Zero Carbon Britain

A couple of weeks after completing the course on "Climate Change challenges and solutions" I was talking to some representatives of neighbouring Transition Towns. I proposed we should adopt "Zero Carbon" as a goal on the premise that this might encourage more people to appreciate and become involved in Transition.

The responses were interesting:

"It's completely unrealistic..."
"It's not what Transition is all about..."
"We'll never persuade politicians...."
"Preserving bio-diversity is important too..."
"How would that encourage local food schemes..."
"Tailor your message to your audience..."

The last response was helpful, and as a start I'm using this blog to explain how I arrived at "Zero Carbon". (To be precise it should really be "Net Zero Carbon", but I don't believe in using three words when two will do).

I've always been a bit of an activist, in fact I believe we all try to persuade and justify our beliefs to others, one way or another, whether it's about religion, politics, how to rear children, diet or exercise regimes, or the latest gizmos. So why "Zero Carbon"?

The short answer is that none of the Transition aims listed above can be achieved - in the long run, for benefit of my offspring - unless we reach "Zero Carbon" in the shortest possible time. There's no chance of feeding a population of 9 billion or preserving bio-diversity unless we stabilise earth's climate.

The difficult thing for many people to grasp is that, even if we could completely halt carbon dioxide emissions today, earth's climate will continue warming for very many years to come. That means other natural processes which contribute to further warming will carry on too, such as: 

• Loss of ice cover reflecting sunlight back into space
• Rainforests drying out so they absorb less carbon dioxide
• Warming of permafrost which releases methane (another powerful greenhouse gas)

"Zero Carbon" is the only way we can start to slow these processes, and give ourselves time to discover how to manage them and take the steps needed to stabilise the climate. The scientific evidence shows that "80% cuts by 2050" just won't hack it. And anyway, even if 80% were enough, what then?

Chart from Zero Carbon Britain, Centre for Alternative Technology   

That's why I believe "Zero Carbon" should be our goal for Transition. Read more in Zero Carbon Britain - a recent report by the Centre for Alternative Technology.

Week 8 - Final week

8.11 Reflections

Week 8 - Final week

Important themes this week included appreciating the uncertainties which accompany climate forecasts, particularly forecasts of ice melting and hence sea level rise, and how much/by when we will act to curb fossil fuel extraction.

The greatest hazard facing UK (as we've seen this winter) is flooding, which could have a dramatic impact upon population centres including London, as well as reducing areas of prime agricultural land for growing food. These in turn will severely impact our economic system.

I was pleased to achieve 29/30 in both of the quizzes, although I needed to do a little research!

It was rather sobering to update the number of times the Thames Barrier has been closed since I first investigated this in Week 3 on 27th January. I shall be watching closely for news of further government actions to protect London from flooding.

Regarding the course as a whole:

I am already actively working to build resilience to climate change in my local community, through involvement with Transition in Kings (TiK) (www.transitioninkings.org) and Grand Union Community Energy Ltd. (www.guceltd.org)

At 73 years old I am not overly concerned about remembering all the facts and figures covered in the course, although I'm pleased to have learned several new concepts in the science of climate change, such as ocean acidification and urban heat islands, as well as gaining a better understanding of the uncertainties which accompany predictions.

Two new ideas will be particularly useful in future Transition work: the application of Carbon Budgets as a spur to action in a locality, and the individual Carbon Footprint Calculator on the DirectGov website.

Week 7

Activity 7.3 - Building design near you

A building or part of an urban landscape that indicates a design that is adapted to a changing climate.

A well-known building that has been adapted to a changing climate is the former Ovaltine Egg Farm in Kings Langley, Herts, WD4 8LR. In 2002 the farm buildings were converted into headquarters offices for Renewable Energy Systems Ltd. (RES)



The building is now known as Beaufort Court, and as you would expect, the conversion incorporates a number of features which adapt it for climate change.

A comprehensive description of the building can be found online, but the main features are:

Energy generation

225 kW wind turbine (visible from M25 motorway)
54 sq m of hybrid photo-voltaic / thermal (PVT) panels
116 sq m of solar thermal panels.
5 hectares of 'Elephant Grass' to fuel biomass boiler in winter
75m deep borehole for cooling in summer

Energy storage

A large underground seasonal heat store allows heat generated from the PVT and solar thermal panels in the summer to be used later during cold weather.

"Greening"

The inner office areas are covered by a grass roof
Boxed Hornbeam trees in front of windows provide shade in summer, and allow light into office during winter.

Activity 7.8 - Reflection

Week 7 covered three main themes:

1. The huge variety of factors that must be considered when designing new buildings to survive through expected climate changes, and even more when looking at making existing buildings more resilient
    
2. Advantages of bottom-up approaches for gaining acceptance of renewable energy systems which change the appearance of familiar landscapes and buildings, compared with top-down approaches which generate resistance to change
    
3. An example of "carbon budget" approach, whereby everyone in a locality can see how their own actions contribute to reducing carbon emissions.  I think this approach can be usefully applied where I live.

Clearly, mastering all the aspects of building for climate change is obviously a lifetime career!

I hadn't realised the extent of UK government efforts which stem from the Climate Change Act of 2008, such as individual Departmental Climate Change Adaptation Plans, Energy Roadmap to 2020, Technology Strategy, Building Regulations & materials, Planning guidance, and so-on. I wonder how well these plans have survived under the government's austerity programme.

As someone who suffers more than many from cold, it hadn't occurred to me that keeping cool in summer is likely to be more important than keeping warm in winter.

I was puzzled why there seem to be relatively few campaigns against wind turbines in our local area. On a recent flight over Portugal we could see large numbers of turbines on every hill, and I was told that 70% of that country's energy demand is no met from renewable sources.

However, our area is relatively flat and average wind speeds are below 7m/sec, which seems to be a critical factor, so there aren't many locations where turbines are financially viable around here. The turbine at Beaufort Court shown above may have been approved because it is near the motorway, rather than "beautiful unspoilt countryside".

Particularly useful documents this week are the Design for future climate and Beating the Heat, and the Guardian article by Rebecca Willis on developing the Lake District's carbon budget.

Week 6

Although I know London tends to be warmer when I visit the city, I did not know about Urban Heat Islands, or why measures to counteract them can be so effective, such as trees and green spaces, or painting roofs and other surfaces white. Surely, solar panels also reflect infra-red rays back into space?

Today in UK we're already seeing the impact of climate change on food production, with large areas of prime agricultural land submerged below the water in the Somerset Levels, Thames Valley & Kent. Some estimates say it will take well over a year for the land to dry out and become productive again.

It started me thinking that perhaps food security is an even more urgent issue that climate change. The farmers who have been forced to leave the Levels appear mostly to produce dairy and beef products, which humans can live without, at least for much of the time.


I had a small difficulty in the quiz: Prof Gurr's transcript says that pathogens are moving towards higher latitudes at 7km per year, rather than 3km per year in the quiz. Which figure is correct?

I spent some time revisiting books I read in the 1980's about food supplies, such as Buckminster Fuller's "Ho-Ping Food for Everyone", and more recent writings on Permaculture from the Transition movement.

Once again, Wikipedia has a good body of articles on Agriculture, incliuding on Permaculture, Polyculture, Aquaponics. The UK government initiated a project to reduce food waste, which has excellent suggestions for reducing waste - see WRAP Waste & Resources Action Programme - http://www.wrap.org.uk

Week 5

At my second attempt I got through the course (15/15 again) and here are my reflections:

1. Themes:

a) Besides reducing the amount of sunlight reflected back into space, loss of ice cover on land at the N & S Poles will cause large sea level rise, much greater than loss of ice cover on mountains

b) It is difficult to predict future loss of polar ice caps with accuracy, for example, Arctic sea ice has retreated more rapidly than expected. Hence it is essential to monitor developments closely and improve understanding of ice loss mechanisms at the poles.

c) Ocean acidification (OA) occurs because CO2 is being absorbed in sea water at faster rates than the production of carbonate ions through weathering of rocks and dissolving shells of dead organisms. The resulting chemical interactions leave higher concentrations of acidic hydrogen ions, reducing the pH value of seawater.

d) Invertebrate organisms will be slow to adapt to harmful effects of OA. They are at the bottom of aquatic food chains, so loss of these organisms will lead to loss of larger aquatic species.

2. Difficult:

New terminology & processes: positive/negative mass balance, basal lubrication, phytoplancton, chemistry of OA.

3. Interesting:

OA is a completely new area to me.

4. Research:

Proportion of world's population living in coastal areas likely to be affected by sea level rise:

http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/climate-change/impacts/sea_level_rise/

5. Useful sites:

 

Wikipedia has many pages on climate change and related issues, e.g.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Arctic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification